Why Ottawa’s 2025 budget approach basically guarantees transit cuts
Ottawa announced their 2025 budget direction this week, and it’s very bad news for Ottawa’s transit. OC Transpo funding is considered to be in dire straights, with a slate of options on the table including:
Increased federal and provincial funding (no guarantee)
A transit levy increase of up to 37%, this alone would be a 7% or so property tax increase
A transit fare increase of up to 75%, this could make a single ride cost $6.74
Transit cuts between 0 and $120 million
The entire tax increase not including transit is projected to be about 2.9%.
The way the budget is being presented feels like transit is being unfairly singled out when Ottawa has kept taxes raises low for years, and other municipalities have raised taxes much more than Ottawa.
Sutcliffe seems to be threatening higher levels of government by risking OC Transpo becoming absolutely unusable. The approach makes no sense, and will likely lead to super high fares, huge transit cuts, or both.
I explain why transit cuts or fare raises are the most likely outcome, and why this budget approach doesn’t make sense below:
Singling out transit in the budget makes no sense
Presenting the tax increase as everything except transit, and then a separate increase for transit is a sure fire way to ensure that transit fails.
Like roads, police, parks, and everything else under the budget, transit is an important and essential service to a thriving city. To separate it out in the budget seems to be our administration’s way of deflecting blame for when transit inevitably gets cut significantly more.
It’s all about how it’s being presented. Transit has recently been paying for itself less through fares, but what if we looked at roads the same way? Our city spends millions on roads every year with little to no direct money collected.
Even if it’s not doing as well at the fare box, public transit still provides incredible value to the city of Ottawa.
If part of Ottawa’s funding shortfall is due to PILTs (federal ‘tax’ payments to the city of Ottawa), why is that all falling on Transit? Shouldn’t the shortfall spread across the whole budget?
Ottawa’s current budget presentation seems to have been designed specifically to minimize tax raises and maximize cuts to transit.
People almost always choose lower taxes
People voted for Sutcliffe partly because he promised lower taxes. Jim Watson was a master at capping property taxes at a low number. Larry O’Brien won on his famous “Zero means zero” slogan (which never worked out).
The people of Ottawa love low taxes. If given the choice, especially when transit is specifically singled out, I am 99% sure the people of Ottawa and their representatives at council are going to choose low taxes over funding transit.
The majority of Ottawa drives
The majority of Ottawa drives, meaning it’s going to be incredibly difficult to get them on-board with a property tax increase that is directly tied to transit and transit only.
I hope I am wrong and I personally know many drivers against this proposed budget, but if given the choice presented as is I’d guess that Ottawa residents that drive are more likely to choose higher bus fares or transit cuts ahead of raising property taxes.
Despite this, drivers will have to deal with the consequences of a failing transit system, meaning more potholes, more traffic, and more bad drivers on the road that could’ve taken the bus instead.
Imbalance at council
Many of the rural and suburban wards prioritize transit less than other modes, and they have a huge voting advantage at council.
If and when the 2025 budget is presented in 2 separate categories, I have a hard time seeing Ottawa’s suburban voting block choosing to raise taxes to adequately fund transit.
The transit fare tipping point
Ottawa is considering raising transit fares by up to 75%, but this move has the potential to backfire. If transit fares get too high, ridership risks dropping enough that OC Transpo’s revenue goes down instead of up.
If Ottawa gets into this situation they’d truly be in trouble and facing the transit death spiral. Ridership would be down, traffic would be worse, low income residents would be worse off financially, and worst of all, OC Transpo would be in a worse financial state than before.
The fact that Ottawa is even considering this is incredibly concerning.
The Province and Feds likely won’t fund us
For reasons why the province and feds are unlikely to fund us, see my article below:
How can we prevent transit cuts?
Email your councillor and the mayor.
Tell your friends and family what’s happening and why they should care.
Get involved with your local community association.
If transit is going to get cut, we shouldn’t let it happen without major pushback from residents.
Transit is a vital and important service in this city.
I work at Wal Mart and can't afford a car. I also can't afford nearly $14 a day on transit. I would most likely lose my job if this happens.
Transit users save so much wear and tear on roads yet are not rewarded in anyway for this saving.
The ones who incur the cost of cars on infrastructure should be the drivers of those cars. They should also pay the cost of people on transit for their benefit of the convenience and comfort of their car.
Other cities have a charge on commuters that come in from outside an urban area. Why can’t Ottawa do this to pay for transit?