Ottawa’s transit budget is neither fiscally conservative or socially helpful
Ottawa released their draft budget this week, and it’s neither fiscally conservative or helpful to those in our city who need it most. It’s truly the worst of both worlds.
The budget features a 2.9% tax increase, up to 3.9% when you consider the transit levy, which is above Sutcliffe’s tax target for his first two years in office, but not enough to cover major funding shortfalls. It’s a higher than many expected tax increase and yet still we will see service reductions and important transit infrastructure projects will likely be cancelled.
Here’s why Ottawa’s transit budget isn’t really useful for anyone long term:
Getting value for our dollar
Every year OC Transpo seems to get worse. Its ridership has never gotten close to returning to pre-pandemic levels. Neil Saravanamuttoo made a great point at a Synapcity/Horizon Ottawa event this week, basically saying that OC Transpo is underused and unreliable and that we need to spend a bit more to make transit way better and actually useful.
The LRT system is a multi-billion dollar investment, letting ridership fall because we won’t spend a few extra million on increasing bus reliability to connect people to the LRT and restore trust in the system is bad economics and fiscal management.
Many people don’t use transit because frequencies are low and reliability is bad. You can’t blame people for not busing when they don’t trust the bus will show up. Ottawa should be spending a bit more money to improve reliability, thereby increasing ridership.
Right now we’re spending a lot of money for a bad product. A bit more investment could turn transit into a decent product, increase ridership, and put it on track to becoming much better long term, avoiding the dreaded transit “death spiral”.
Sometimes you have to spend money to make money, and in this case Ottawa would do well to follow that advice.
Not actually saving residents money
There’s lots said in this budget about saving people money, but when you account for the cost savings that transit can bring, both in residents’ pockets and in reduced road expansion and maintenance, I’m not so confident residents will see savings.
What about residents who are forced to buy a car because of OC Transpo no longer meeting their needs, or families who have to go from one car to two because transit is now unreliable. Or the student who has to regularly call a $20 Uber because their bus never showed up?
The 2025 property tax increase averages out to a $168 annual increase on the average urban property tax bill, whereas the average cost of car ownership in Canada is over $16,000 a year. If just a small fraction of Ottawa’s population is forced into (additional) car ownership due to failing transit, we collectively come out behind financially.
It’s possible that these changes made to “save” residents money will result in more costs for residents, not less.
Unpredictably scares away investment
Ottawa’s transit system is becoming more unreliable and unpredictable, and aimlessly hoping for money via a $36 million placeholder for provincial/federal money that may never come will only worsen the problem. I spoke with a small business owner last week who’s worried because their employees are having trouble getting to work on time by transit.
If we want businesses to set up in Ottawa, and bring their money and jobs with them, we need to show that Ottawa is a place that is improving, growing, and has workers that can show up on time. A $36 million hole in the transit budget and the resulting issues risk scaring people away from using transit, and the inevitable cuts or further depletion of reserves that will come from this will reduce confidence in Ottawa’s fiscal stability.
Protecting future revenue
Providing free and subsidized transit is a great way to convert long term transit riders and ensure a customer base well into the future. By cancelling free transit for 11 and 12 year olds, and raising transit pass costs for youth under 18 by 36%, Ottawa is risking long term ridership for short term cost savings.
In the business world, many businesses will spend a huge amount of money upfront to acquire a customer, because they know that once customers have changed their habits and trust the product, they are unlikely to switch.
By cutting youth passes, Ottawa is putting long term ridership gains at risk for short term ‘savings’.
An unfair distraction
I really don’t understand the 120% increase to seniors passes and the cut to free transit days for seniors. Yes seniors are statistically the most well off generation, but many are on a fixed income or can’t drive, and I can guarantee no one budgeted for their transportation costs to double in 2025.
Not only is the price increase unfair, it doesn’t make political sense. Seniors are the most active at the political level and there’s going to be a huge (justified) pushback to this.
The only logic I can see to this move is that the changes will get reversed following the huge pushback and then the city can say they listened. It will also distract from many of the other issues in the transit budget, like the $36 million funding hole, the further efficiencies in bus maintenance for an aging fleet, and the $20 million or so in deferred capital spending.
Speak out about the budget
The budget may be looking less than ideal, but it’s important to have your voice heard. Join your community association, delegate at a city meeting, or write an email to your councillor and the mayor. Better yet, share this post with a friend or family member.
The fundamental problem with Ottawa Transit is it fails to put transit riders actual transit needs as their top priority, which can be simply stated as:
Get me where I need to go, when I need to go, in a reasonable amount of time, at a reasonable cost, and in reasonable comfort, reliably and safely.
Speaking from Kanata, where both my spouse and I have relied on transit to the city core for work and meetings at city hall pre-LRT, and in conversations with people across Kanata Stittsville in my capacity as a community association director since 1995, some observations.
Post LRT based Ottawa transit has increased transit time from under 30 min to as much as 90 minutes in either direct for work commuting, with a massive degradation in reliabilty, which now includes multiple transfers.
Transit outside weekday commuting times are essentially so infrequent and with such limited schedules as to be useless.
Local transit in Kanata Stittsville is only used by students and those who cannot afford a personal vehicle. The infrequent buses are mostly empty.
LRT phase 2 will do nothing to any of these factors as the only access to LRT will continue to be by public transit as the closest LRT station, at Moodie, is 5 km away (greenbelt) with no park'n'ride even remotely within walking distance.
In short, for those who live outside the greenbelt, which is growing at 6 times that of, say, Centretown, a personal vehicle will remain a requirement for the next 25 years, based on the projections in the City of Ottawa's Official Plan and Transportation Master Plan.